https://open.spotify.com/show/1YLdsplGCw4Rolkp9RQnyq Join renowned Iran expert Afshon Ostovar as he explores the strategic dynamics, military developments, and geopolitical tensions shaping Iran and its partners, rivals, and interests in the Middle East and beyond. (War on the Rocks) Wed, 04 Nov 2026 13:05:19 +0000 https://i.scdn.co/image/ab6765630000ba8a5cabf8275b4827f6ee3bc24f https://open.spotify.com/episode/4yMFIKD3MsTZOSF3BtB7uZ Afshon provides an update on the potential for renewed fighting and ongoing diplomatic efforts as of Oct. 27. Kerry then presents Afshon with questions from listeners about potential rifts within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iranian leaders' ideological commitment, shifts in the U.S. military posture, the diplomatic role of regional actors, and what a durable peace might look like.Image: Seaman Kaylianna Genier via Wikimedia Commons 4yMFIKD3MsTZOSF3BtB7uZ Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/5e6J0jU7gK8PA5knvIXR7I As Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, Afshon and Kerry discuss conditions in the strait, the intensifying war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, and how upcoming elections in Israel and the United States play into various actors' decision-making. They also dig into how the instability has re-energized the Baloch insurgency in southeastern Iran.Image: Wikimedia Commons 5e6J0jU7gK8PA5knvIXR7I Tue, 20 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/5BVomkwAHiKtzqyPGdwMrT Afshon talks with Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, about the impacts of the war with Iran on the Gulf Cooperation Council states and how they're responding. Sanam and Afshon consider how the states are approaching their Iran problem, their U.S. problem, and their Yemen problem — and whether the Mecca defense pact will help Saudi Arabia respond to attacks from the Houthis.Image: Midjourney 5BVomkwAHiKtzqyPGdwMrT Thu, 08 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/3UrUS0KevpuaTu3y8Jy7hk Afshon talks with Asfandyar Mir, a senior fellow for South Asia at the Stimson Center. They discuss how the war with Iran has affected Pakistan, Islamabad's relationship with Tehran, and the country's role as a mediator. More broadly, they consider Pakistan's strategic position in the Middle East and its global role at a time when middle powers have growing opportunity to exert influence — as demonstrated in the recent defense pact between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.Image: The White House via Wikimedia Commons 3UrUS0KevpuaTu3y8Jy7hk Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/4fBGakOfouDCeg360xNf1D Afshon and Kerry catch up on recent events in the war and the saga over the Strait of Hormuz. They discuss how Tehran and Washington both interpreted the June memorandum of understanding very differently and how that led to the current standoff. They also consider what Iran and Oman want from negotiations over the strait. Afshon considers changes within the regime's leadership, including Mohsen Rezaei's new role as the top national security adviser. They wrap up with a look ahead.Image: Sonia Sevilla via DVIDS 4fBGakOfouDCeg360xNf1D Thu, 13 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/3Wc6wbLl16v0jCnt2RJrOJ On July 20, the Houthis in Yemen announced a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Afshon talks with Gregory Johnsen, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, about the role that the Houthis play in expanding the U.S. war with Iran and how their threats against Saudi shipping could affect the conflict in Yemen. Image: NASA Johnson Space Center via Wikimedia Commons 3Wc6wbLl16v0jCnt2RJrOJ Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/1yReqEwa8HAMUfl7uOwJCj The U.S.-Iranian Memorandum of Understanding is on ice. Afshon talks with Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group, about how Iranian leadership is reading the war — especially Iran’s role in the Strait of Hormuz. They dig into the strange story of former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s alleged role in an Israeli plan to install him as Iran’s new leader, and close with what renewed fighting could mean for global oil markets.Image: U.S. Navy via Wikimedia Commons 1yReqEwa8HAMUfl7uOwJCj Sat, 18 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/4ueJ1PwgCw4iMjw2vEhryg So far this year, the Iranian people have suffered through brutal crackdowns on protesters — including a two-day massacre in January — and the effects of war. Afshon and Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, discuss how Iranians are coping, how they view the war, why a new uprising against the regime became so difficult, and the outlook for human rights in Iran.Image: POS78 via Wikimedia Commons 4ueJ1PwgCw4iMjw2vEhryg Tue, 30 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/7vae0KYlu61DgdZa9Dl7EU The United States and Iran have agreed to a memorandum of understanding to end hostilities and engage in further negotiations. In this episode, Afshon answers Kerry's questions about what's in the agreement, how both sides might interpret it, and what to watch for going forward.Image: The White House 7vae0KYlu61DgdZa9Dl7EU Fri, 19 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/52CRvnT3rY53ufHKpSES26 Afshon talks with Michael Koplow, chief policy officer of the Israel Policy Forum, about Israel's perspective on the war — and potential peace — with Iran. They discuss what Israel sought to accomplish with the war that began on Feb. 28, the changes in U.S.-Israeli relations since then, Israel's approach toward Lebanon, how the situation is shaping Israel's upcoming elections, and whether there's a reasonably plausible U.S.-Iranian deal that Israel would see as acceptable. While Afshon and Michael recorded on June 12, amidst rumors that a deal was close but before Washington and Tehran agreed to a memorandum of understanding, their conversation covers factors that remain essential to ongoing U.S.-Iranian negotiations and regional developments.Image: The White House via Wikimedia Commons 52CRvnT3rY53ufHKpSES26 Tue, 16 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/6l8xeFQinALNKgOfb9tNOX In this episode, Afshon and Kerry talk with Hamidreza Azizi about how the Iranian leadership views the war and negotiations, and who is in charge of the Iranian government now. They also address reports that Israel had initially sought to boost former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad into power in Tehran. Hamidreza is a visiting fellow at Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Berlin and the author of the forthcoming book The Axis of Resistance: Iran, Israel, and the Struggle for the Middle East. Image: Tasnim News Agency via Wikimedia Commons 6l8xeFQinALNKgOfb9tNOX Wed, 27 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/4tup1CNwJxn2d8OVfENmou Afshon talks with Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center. They assess U.S. military objectives and political goals in the war with Iran and consider Iran's response. Their conversation covers Iran's military capabilities and the challenges for the United States when facing an adversary who can implement an asymmetric strategy. They also identify what has surprised them about the war and how the conflict might play out next. Image: Mohammad Ali Borno via Wikimedia Commons 4tup1CNwJxn2d8OVfENmou Thu, 21 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/1E3YQmnucz5qiPHrywxnNx On April 21, U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire with Iran, saying that Iran's government is "seriously fractured." Kerry asks Afshon about what we know — and what we don't know — about the current state of the Iranian regime and who's in charge. They also discuss the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, and how Washington and Tehran might find a way out of the conflict.Image: Hossein Zohrevand via Wikimedia Commons 1E3YQmnucz5qiPHrywxnNx Fri, 24 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/6Rcv9kOeU7zMY8aW13IlgB Afshon provides an update on the U.S.-Iranian ceasefire and the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. Recorded on April 16 — before the Lebanon ceasefire was announced — the discussion focuses on the extent to which the U.S. blockade can put pressure on Iran and potential remaining targets in Iran if the ceasefire ends. Kerry then presents Afshon with questions from listeners about what it would take to keep the Strait of Hormuz open in the long term, how to define victory, China's and Russia's roles in the war, Iran's relations with the Gulf Arab states, and the potential for peace in the region. Image: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff via Wikimedia Commons 6Rcv9kOeU7zMY8aW13IlgB Sat, 18 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/69nLSxkGqDlQbTdPkzIRTb Afshon provides an update on the war with Iran — recorded on April 7, before the ceasefire was announced, the discussion included the rescue of a U.S. servicemember shot down over Iran and other recent developments. Then Kerry presents him with listeners' questions focused on the potential for regime change in Iran, including indicators that might suggest the regime is close to collapse, how an uprising might play out, the interests of ethnic minorities, and how the regime tries to control the narrative. This is the second in a series of episodes answering listeners' questions.Image: Mohsen Ranginkaman via Wikimedia Commons 69nLSxkGqDlQbTdPkzIRTb Wed, 08 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/0WzDkqG0bDLPCPakyReZrA Afshon provides an update on the war with Iran. Then Kerry presents him with listeners' questions focused on Iranian regime politics, including the role of the Basij and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, key surviving leaders, and how the war might shape political outcomes. This is the first in a series of episodes answering listeners' questions.Image: Hamed Malekpour via Wikimedia Commons 0WzDkqG0bDLPCPakyReZrA Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/2yesS4SQ6LZ3th3U6HWw36 Afshon and Kerry discuss developments in the war over the last week, including the death of Ali Larijani, the expanding strikes on oil and gas sites, and shifts in the Trump administration's strategy. They also assess some of the regional impacts, particularly in Iraq and Lebanon. Afshon identifies key factors to watch over the next few days. Image: Hossein Mersadi via Wikimedia Commons 2yesS4SQ6LZ3th3U6HWw36 Fri, 20 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/634be5TkpXUqEWsDQxPlld Afshon talks with Gregory Brew about Iranian power politics — the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader, competition among key regime figures, and why being president of Iran is a political curse. They also discuss how Iran’s military campaign has shifted, the regime’s war aims, the impact on oil markets, and what might mark an eventual end to the conflict.Image: Mostafa Tehrani via Wikimedia Commons 634be5TkpXUqEWsDQxPlld Wed, 11 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/0hNdEOxQdM5VjskLY6x8Uo Afshon and Sam Lair dig into the details of Iran's missile capabilities and how that has shaped the war. They discuss the extent to which Iran reconstituted its missile force after the June 2025 war, how much success Israel and the United States have had so far in suppressing that force in the current war, how Iran has used its missiles and drones in retaliation, and what to watch for going forward. Sam is a Research Associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and a Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.Image: Unknown author via Wikimedia Commons 0hNdEOxQdM5VjskLY6x8Uo Fri, 06 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/07iEq0MFMC6M3r2FXT3eDG Iran has targeted multiple Arab states in response to the U.S. and Israeli strikes that began on Feb. 28. Afshon talks with Sanam Vakil about where relations between Iran and the Arab Gulf states stood before the war, surprise over the extent of Iranian strikes on Arab countries, and how the war is likely to shape Arab Gulf states' foreign policy into the future. Sanam is director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House and the James Anderson professorial lecturer at Johns Hopkins SAIS Europe.Image: محمدعلی برنو via Wikimedia Commons 07iEq0MFMC6M3r2FXT3eDG Wed, 04 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/0CnO7D40LCaVCQlxkk9HZD On the third day of the war in Iran, Afshon and Kerry discuss who's in charge in Iran, how Iran's military is responding, the role of drones, uncertainty about Washington's goals, and Hizballah's involvement. Afshon notes what he's watching for over the next few days.Image: U.S. Central Command Public Affairs via DVIDS 0CnO7D40LCaVCQlxkk9HZD Mon, 02 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/2kE81WFBcydbDsQNCEAUy7 On the second day of war with Iran, Afshon and Kerry talk about the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and how Iran's remaining leadership is moving ahead with a leadership transition while also fighting the war. They discuss Iran's military capabilities and its decision to widely attack Arab Gulf countries as well as Israel. Image: Tasnim News Agency via Wikimedia Commons 2kE81WFBcydbDsQNCEAUy7 Sun, 01 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/3ztuHaLAOXQ7P9wcSWDjPH Just hours ago, the United States and Israel launched sweeping strikes on targets in Iran — and Tehran is responding. Events are moving quickly, with U.S. President Donald Trump openly calling for regime change. What just happened? Why did negotiations fail? What is Washington trying to achieve? And how real is the prospect of regime change in Tehran?In this urgent episode, Afshon and War on the Rocks membership editor Kerry Anderson break down the strikes, the failed negotiations that preceded them, the strategic calculations in Washington and Tehran, and what could come next.Image: Donald J. Trump via Wikimedia Commons 3ztuHaLAOXQ7P9wcSWDjPH Sat, 28 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/78pshrCeM5nSkKup4YCWMi Afshon sits down with Farzan Sabet to discuss how the recent protests are shaping the political environment in Iran, how the regime is responding, and the role of the Iranian diaspora — particularly Reza Pahlavi. They also discuss how previous protest movements helped lead to this moment. Farzan is a Managing Researcher of the Sanctions and Sustainable Peace Hub at the Geneva Graduate Institute.Image: Matt Hrkac via Wikimedia Commons 78pshrCeM5nSkKup4YCWMi Wed, 11 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/0bZkmOTatuzTpruBlqODa6 Ryan Evans joins Afshon on the show, as Afshon breaks down everything you need to know to understand the protest movement taking to the streets across Iran, openly calling for the end of this authoritarian regime. How does the regime operate its repressive apparatus? What of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the ousted shah who is waiting in the wings? What are the scenarios under which we could see the regime fall apart? How did we get here? Afshon answers these questions and more.Image: Nano Banana 0bZkmOTatuzTpruBlqODa6 Tue, 13 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/6DrStnPMc566GHWsbKhPL2 Afshon is joined by Behnam Ben Taleblu from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Nicole Grajewski from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They assess how the Iranian regime is responding to its security realities following the Israeli and U.S. strikes in June 2025, including how it's rebuilding its missile program, re-evaluating its retaliatory capabilities, and pursuing status. Image: Ali Khamenei via Wikimedia Commons 6DrStnPMc566GHWsbKhPL2 Mon, 05 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/3jds68V9YV3l6c4offEFfb Afshon talks with Inna Rudolf, a research associate at King's College London and a partner at the Candid Foundation, to unpack the results of Iraq's recent elections and the subsequent coalition-building. Their conversation then turns to Iran's evolving relationship with Iraq, exploring the complex and shifting role of Shia militias and how Tehran's strategy has adapted to major regional developments over the past two years.Image: Ali Khamenei via Wikimedia Commons 3jds68V9YV3l6c4offEFfb Wed, 17 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/5vTBsw7Berblen0bZLpLKb On this episode of The Iran Reckoning, Afshon and Thomas Juneau discuss how the Houthis came to “punch above their weight” in the Middle East. They identify key turning points that led Iran to increase its support to the Houthis, the leaders' ambitious view of their role in the region, and the risks that the Houthis will continue to pose to the Middle East and international shipping.Image: Haitham Mohammed via Wikimedia Commons 5vTBsw7Berblen0bZLpLKb Mon, 03 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/72SE6k5wSjAKK7263hZq8b On this episode of The Iran Reckoning, Afshon sits down with Nicole Grajewski to discuss the layered and evolving Russo-Iranian partnership: from early nuclear and defense ties to joint operations in Syria and beyond. They unpack shared interests, tensions, as well as shifts driven by the war in Ukraine, examining how sanctions evasion, military technology, and geopolitical alignment sustain this uneasy but enduring relationship.Image: Ali Khamenei via Wikimedia Commons 72SE6k5wSjAKK7263hZq8b Thu, 02 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/4Vfw624XKxQNlAgIFZYfBS Afshon is joined by Washington Post reporter Nilo Tabrizy to reflect on her experience covering the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom movement in Iran. Their conversation explores how the protests spread across Iran, why ethnic and religious minorities faced disproportionate violence, the creative methods journalists used to authenticate evidence, and the ongoing ways people continue to resist in daily life.Image: Farnews via Wikimedia Commons 4Vfw624XKxQNlAgIFZYfBS Tue, 16 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/1dH3MVzf171MrgJk3P9AXc On this episode of The Iran Reckoning, Holly Dagres joins Afshon to explore the social and political conditions shaping Iranian youth culture — especially among Generation Z and Generation Alpha. They trace the defining experiences of different generations since the Iranian Revolution — from protest movements and government crackdowns to wars and periods of upheaval — and examine how the regime has adapted to maintain its grip on power. Holly is the author of The Iranist newsletter and the Libitzky Family Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.Image: Farnews via Wikimedia Commons 1dH3MVzf171MrgJk3P9AXc Thu, 04 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/1JpuPjnRZ8vd3cvXQZbAmG Afshon sits down with Washington Post reporter Yeganeh Torbati to discuss how the Iranian government has responded to the country's emerging tech sector. Their conversation examines the tools the regime — particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — uses to exert control over the economy, and considers whether more space for Iranian entrepreneurship might emerge in the future. 1JpuPjnRZ8vd3cvXQZbAmG Tue, 19 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/7db4ghZzSRTmUU4nxy4Ks4 Gregory Brew joins Afshon to discuss how oil shapes Iran's economy and its geopolitical significance. They examine Iran's emergence as the Middle East's first oil producer, how Tehran navigates sanctions, and how recent events have pushed Iran closer to China. Image: Fars News Agency via Wikimedia Commons 7db4ghZzSRTmUU4nxy4Ks4 Mon, 04 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/4g5MIGl0IcN4kOFY7JFWwv Afshon sits down with Fabian Hinz to examine the history of the Iranian missile program and how it has succeeded or failed in advancing the country's grand strategy over the last several decades, from the Iran-Iraq War to the recent "12-Day War" between Israel and Iran. Image: Student News Agency via Wikimedia Commons 4g5MIGl0IcN4kOFY7JFWwv Mon, 21 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/7vv4cAGGdjoDBvSlVTf7Vf War on the Rocks is launching a new show called "The Iran Reckoning with Afshon Ostovar." It's a members-only show but this first episode is free for all. Join us as renowned Iran scholar Afshon Ostovar takes you inside one of America's most complex and consequential adversaries. In this episode, Ryan introduces you to Afshon and his background (about the first 20 minutes) before discussing the ongoing war between Iran on one side and Israel and the United States on the other, and the unstable ceasefire that we currently find ourselves in. Much like the "The Russia Contingency with Michael Kofman," this show will feature Afshon's discussions with fellow experts and analysts. 7vv4cAGGdjoDBvSlVTf7Vf Thu, 26 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000